Making the Right Moves

Bourne (16 steals, 4th in MLB)
Downs ( 7 saves, solid control of closer job)
Street (8 saves)
Sherill (10 saves)
Hanrahan (5 saves, regained closer role)
Bailey (2 saves, appears to have the job)
Jimenez($1 keeper, 53Ks in 59 innings, 6 quality starts)
Young ($1 keeper, 8 quality starts in 62.2 innings)
Porcello ($1 keeper, 5 QS and 6 wins in 51.2 innings)

Winning in fantasy baseball is all about picking up the right players at the right time. Drafting well certainly helps and means you have to make less moves, but you still need to fill out your roster with hot players if you want to win. This yearI have had more of a "win in September" mentality in general and have been more focused on making moves that could have stronger value in the playoffs.

I have been VERY aggressive seeking out prospective closers, to the point of dropping and adding Street, Sherrill, and Bailey more than once as their jobs have been up in the air. This comes as part of the draft strategy of getting several mediocre closers instead of investing way too much for the top closers. I end up being very competitive in saves and relief pitchers don't hurt your ratios quite as much if you carry a big starting staff to smooth out the innings. Not to mention sometimes the "mediocre" closers turn into elite or very solid ones. Soria comes to mind, and Bailey could be elite this year potentially.

Adding Ubaldo, Porcello, and Young looks to be very strong at the moment as they are all potential keepers and are pitching well right now. Picking up players that are keepable, need to have been drafted, is pretty important if some of them work out in this keeper league. At some point I might be able to trade them for extra value if a team needs keepers. This format also discourages steaming a bit as in a normal league I might be tempted to drop one of these guys if they have a bad start and there is a decent option available, but being a keeper league if I drop one of them someone might snatch them up and stash them. The league kind of forces patience, which obviously some owners didn't have as I ended up with these three solid starters that are also keepers. The only drops I regret are the closers that I ended up picking back up later, so thus far no regrets. I am kind of upset that Baker has turned out so well at catcher, but Wieters should outperform him the rest of the way.

Bourn is the type of player I hate but is needed on my team. I don't have quite enough steals with Roberts(10), Hanley(8), Pujols(7!), Jones (4), and Holliday (3) to be very competitive week to week, so having Bourn as a bench option when steals are close is pretty valuable. He is hitting a LOT better than last year getting on base nearly 80 points better and he had 41 steals last year. He could easily hit 50-60 with a .350 on base and score a lot of runs. He is essentially Jose Reyes-lite, and actually has better numbers across the board than Reyes at this point(granted Reyes has 11 games fewer played due to injury). My situation would be better if Ortiz was hitting so that Bourn wasn't an automatic start as I auto-bench Papi. In general I prefer my speedsters to do better across more categories, like Hanley, Roberts and I guess Pujols! Not many people have 16 home runs and 7 steals at this point...and a .460 on base. Pujols is a god!!!!

Price's Second Start and more

Due to Fox's ridiculous blackout bullshit policy I was unable to actually watch Price, but I followed his start closely on MLB Gameday pitch tracker as well as the radio broadcast. Eleven strikeouts in 5.2 innings and is in line for the win as he gave up one run to the Rays four. This is the type of start I was expecting out of Price at home against the Twins, but it would be nice for price to go a little deeper into the game. Granted your pitch count is higher than normal if you strike out eleven, but he still faced a lot of 3-2 counts and fouled off pitches on two strike counts. My basic view of him from the first start I saw looks to be accurate, that when he is spotting his fastball he is nigh unhittable. It is clear why he was the number one pitching prospect before getting called up, he is a monster.

Speaking of number one prospects, Wieters had his first major league game yesterday and looked OK at the plate but didn't get any hits. He, and my other two Orioles, face Verlander tonight which should be a good test as he has been lights out the last few starts. It is a good feeling to have both Wieters and Price active finally and not have to worry about when they would get the call.

Owning David Ortiz is getting harder and harder by the day. I've been watching his at-bats when I can and lately he has been hitting a lot of line drives...into defender's gloves, but it appears he is getting a little unlucky at times. He nearly had a grand slam on Friday against the Jays in the first inning but only reached the warning track and went on to go 0-4 yet again. He is 2 for his last 31 which is pretty astounding. Not only is he not hitting homers, he isn't hitting anything. Because my staff is so strong right now I can get by winning the pitching cats and winning a few hitting cats and still cruise to the playoffs, but if I want to win the league I will need Ortiz to heat up or I will be inclined to trade for a solid bat to replace him. I can still wait on him for a while longer though, but until the Sox completely give up on him, he has already been dropped to the 6th spot, I will stay with him as well.

WIETERS!!!

Wieters finally gets the call up on Friday and his production could not come sooner to my injury ridden offense. Hanley just pulled a groin and is day to day and Hawpe also has a groin problem. Of course Aramis is still out with a separated shoulder and the soonest he could be back is around the all-star break. My team is really going to need Wieters to produce and produce quickly, which I think he will be able to in what's becoming a very solid Baltimore line-up. It will be interesting to see where he hits in the order but the closer he is to Roberts, Markakis, and Jones the higher his RBI numbers will be.

Picked up Sheffield to replace Hawpe but had to drop him for Andrew Bailey who looked very strong in his second save opportunity. He has been used oddly the last week or so, sometimes in multiple innings, as you can tell he is the only one in the A's pen that the manager trusts. I was watching him pitch and he reminds me a lot of Papelbon when he had a dominant fastball consistently at 96-97. Ziegler has looked really hitable lately and I believe Bailey will get more saves the rest of the way. The only problem is when they are forced to go to him early because no other reliever can be trusted in that bullpen.

Grienke posted another ridiculous complete game 8 strikeout win last night as well. While I would trade him for an elite bat, I won't be too upset if I'm forced to hold on to him as he is definitely the best pitcher in baseball right now. Every hit against him looks lucky as the RBI Magglio produced came off a shattered bat blooper. For me though top hitters are more valuable than pitchers and if I can get one my team will be better off in the long run. Grienke also has even higher value in our keeper league as you will be able to keep him for $15 next year, a good 7-10 dollar savings on what he will be worth.

David Price's First Start

I watched Price's start against the Indians and it was a mixed bag. He is the only starter I've seen throw 97-98 on most of his fastballs throughout a game and when he spotted it the hitters looked awful. Unfortunately he threw way too many balls and the Indians kept fouling off pitches, I don't think I've seen so many foul balls this year off of one pitcher, which ran his count up to 100 after just 3.1 innings. He was also getting squeezed pretty badly on at least 2 of the five walks he gave up. This looks like perhaps the worst Price can be, which was still 6 Ks in 3.1 innings only giving up 2 runs off of 5 walks and 4 hits. A WHIP killer to be sure but the dude is a strike out machine even on his worst day. I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw multiple no-hitters when he has good command as he made quite a few of the Indian hitters look pathetic on a number of pitches, he was just very inconsistent in this start. I am excited to watch his next start later this week at home against Minnesota where hopefully he gets some of the borderline strikes that were called balls today.

Week 8 Thoughts

We have now completed the first seven weeks of the fantasy baseball season and I am currently sitting in second place at 39-26-5, 6.5 games back of Gus who is in first, but more importantly I have about a 6 game lead on the fifth place team. While I would love to stay in second, or take first, it is far more important to make the playoffs and only the top four teams make it. Looking at the season stats I am currently top three in runs, on base, ERA and WHIP and middle of the pack in every other category. Getting zero power out of Ortiz and having Aramis go down and basically having no catcher all year is contributing to my weakness in HR/RBI. Once Wieters and Aramis start playing my offense should right itself, and if Ortiz can figure something out it will be gravy. I am very happy that I have been able to stay in the top three so far this year with the problems my team has had thus far. Ortiz, Wieters, and Price have all contributed nothing all year so far, though Price makes his first start today and he will be able to throw 100 pitches.

On the pitching end I recently traded shaky closer Mike Gonzalez for Lester who should bolster my wins and Ks where I am lacking so far in pitching. I also was able to pick up Chris Young who has had back to back great starts. Porcello and Ubaldo have also been fantastice since I picked them up. My staff is definitely shaping up, and once Price starts contributing it should be pretty overwhelming. Escobar is also looking good for his early June return, just adding further depth. I've also added Tim Hudson who says he is feeling fantastice post Tommy John, and the Atlanta announcers say he looks better than ever, he is due to return in August.

Overall my team is progressing nicely and is looking to peak in August/September right when I need it to. Importantly I am getting amazing production out of Grienke($11), Weaver($1), Jurrjens($1) and Adam Jones($1) which has kept me afloat thus far and is allowing me to be very patient with Ortiz, Wieters, Price, Hudson, and others that I might have had to drop in this 10 team league if I was off to a bad start. It is pretty exciting to see three of my dollar buys be home runs in the early going. Jones in particular is looking like he could be a three year keeper as he has been nigh unstoppable at the plate.

Better Lucky than Good.

Especially when half of your team is Day to Day...

My team is facing a very strange week this week with Hanley, A-Ram, Thome, Hawpe, and Ziegler(already missed 1 save chance) all day to day and have yet to play so far. I'm still sitting in a decent position for the week with Grienke/Joba pitching lights out giving me a big edge in ERA/WHIP. Pujols has singlehandedly kept me competitive the last two-three weeks in offense, further validating my buy of him. Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Fukodome have also been keys to my surviving offensive categories the last three weeks. Here's a list of players on my offense who have either done very little to nothing or haven't been playing regularly due to injury:

Holliday: Been an absolute corpse at the plate, but hit his first home run in his last at-bat last night. My offense is decidedly average without Holliday producing.

Ortiz: Still without a homer, but quite a few doubles, Ortiz is right up there with Holliday as a corpse at the plate at the moment. He's hit a few doubles that could have been homers outside of Fenway, but he has looked absolutley horrible at times at the plate. This is all very frightening, but it is still possible that he either gets his timing down or starts joining Bitch Tits himself by starting a strong drug regimen.

Thome: Thome is hitting well enough when he plays but he has already missed 6 games to either a bad heel or lefty starters. He is still valuable, but I have to closely manage him to make sure I bench him against lefties.

Burrell: His onbase is improving, .450 in the last 15 games, but no signs of power yet. This is exactly what I am expecting out of Burrell, that he has a solid on-base when he isn't hitting homers, I just need him to start cranking a few every now and then.

Aramis: Obviously fantastic when he plays, but he hasn't played a full game since April 23.

Hanley: Has been solid when he's played, and has been robbed of a few homers that turned into doubles, but he hasn't played a full game since the 26th due to John Fucking Maine hitting him in the hand with a fastball. Luckily there was no fracture or my team would be in SERIOUS fucking trouble for the year. Hanley has yet to catch fire and play to his potential this year, pre injured hand, so I have that to look forward to at some point. Hanley has also been caught stealing quite a bit this year so far as well.

I still think that once my team starts getting 3-4 of the above guys playing full time at their potential my offense is the best in the league. So far it just hasn't happened yet. I am very very fortunate that my lackluster offensive weeks have been getting matched up with other teams who have had off weeks as well and that mine were slightly better. My team is still leading the league in runs and rbi, as expected, and third in On Base; but I am second to last on homers which I expect to turn around dramatically at some point. On the steals front I am currently 6th, and my steals leader is Pujols with 4...once Hanley gets going again and Roberts stops getting thrown out at a 50% clip I should be in the top 4 or 5 in steals as well.

April Sighs

You know your team has a problem when Kevin Millwood is an anchor of your rotation...and that Zach Duke is on your team. Maybe this is the year Duke lives up to his 2005 breakout...which looking back at wasn't that impressive. He only had 58 strikeouts in 84 innings...but he did have a 1.81 ERA which was the big deal. My bet is he ends up on waivers before long, same with Millwood and his back to back 5+ ERA seasons...this can't be the year he turns it around, can it?

On the bright side Greinke shut out the Rangers in Arlington with 10 Ks and has a 30 inning scoreless streak. I thought he would be great this year, but maybe not quite this good. My team desperately needs him to continue for my staff not to be a complete train wreck on my ERA/WHIP. This is definitely the first year I have been so bad in Ks and Wins, but it has been a little by design as discussed previously. Normally I have AJ Burnett and Carlos Zambrano on my team who give you the Ks and Wins but can blow up at times. Also I have been far more aggressive on picking up riskier K pitchers off waivers. A perfect example is David Purcey who I had on my team for a week but didn't start, and dropped him after a 4.2 inning 10 K game because he had 6 walks, 4 hits, and 4 ER. He has since had a 3.2 inning 5 run game.

The strategy becomes a lot more difficult to manage when you have too many risks in your rotation and bullpen like I do. Greinke is probably the only sure thing on the entire roster. Luckily Joba, Price, Weaver, and Jurrjens have all shown flashes of being great as well. My closer situation is becoming tighter by the day with Street already being demoted out of the role, Villanueva losing his job because of skill and Hoffman coming back soon, and Motte being cut loose after two bad outings. This has let me take some more chances on starters, and I'm still somewhat comfortable with Ziegler and Gonzalez. I pray for Sherrill as he has looked horrible for the most part, but seems to be able to strike out that last batter with the bases loaded each time. If one of those three go down I will be forced to trade for a closer, or be on top of who replaces them.

My offense has not been overwhelming this week, mainly because Hanley isn't doing anything and Ortiz has had one extra base hit all year so far. Luckily Fukodome and Adam Jones are saving me from getting blown out. Burrell, Thome, and most disturbingly Holliday are all having a very slow start. I've already seen two doubles Holliday has hit in Oakland that would have been home runs in most parks. He even began a trot before realizing it would hit the wall. Granted he is hitting .244 at the moment and is a career .318 hitter, so he should bounce back strong at some point. In a head to head league the more stats I can load up in the later months, the better. Perfect example of that was last year when Miguel Cabrera and Tiexera had terrible first months but then produced to their averages in the second half. Cabrera even hit more homers than he ever has, hitting a believe 25 of them in the second half. He never quite raised his batting average back to his career numbers, but it was so low to begin with it was difficult.

Ortiz scares the shit out of me with his horrible .209 slugging % and his 12 strikeouts in 11 games. Even in his slow Aprils in the past he hit homers, his minimum is 5 in the past few years in April. My team will survive without him, but if somehow he puts it together and gives me the 30+ HRs and 380+ OBP I paid $20 for my team becomes a lot more powerful.