Bourne (16 steals, 4th in MLB)
Downs ( 7 saves, solid control of closer job)
Street (8 saves)
Sherill (10 saves)
Hanrahan (5 saves, regained closer role)
Bailey (2 saves, appears to have the job)
Jimenez($1 keeper, 53Ks in 59 innings, 6 quality starts)
Young ($1 keeper, 8 quality starts in 62.2 innings)
Porcello ($1 keeper, 5 QS and 6 wins in 51.2 innings)
Winning in fantasy baseball is all about picking up the right players at the right time. Drafting well certainly helps and means you have to make less moves, but you still need to fill out your roster with hot players if you want to win. This yearI have had more of a "win in September" mentality in general and have been more focused on making moves that could have stronger value in the playoffs.
I have been VERY aggressive seeking out prospective closers, to the point of dropping and adding Street, Sherrill, and Bailey more than once as their jobs have been up in the air. This comes as part of the draft strategy of getting several mediocre closers instead of investing way too much for the top closers. I end up being very competitive in saves and relief pitchers don't hurt your ratios quite as much if you carry a big starting staff to smooth out the innings. Not to mention sometimes the "mediocre" closers turn into elite or very solid ones. Soria comes to mind, and Bailey could be elite this year potentially.
Adding Ubaldo, Porcello, and Young looks to be very strong at the moment as they are all potential keepers and are pitching well right now. Picking up players that are keepable, need to have been drafted, is pretty important if some of them work out in this keeper league. At some point I might be able to trade them for extra value if a team needs keepers. This format also discourages steaming a bit as in a normal league I might be tempted to drop one of these guys if they have a bad start and there is a decent option available, but being a keeper league if I drop one of them someone might snatch them up and stash them. The league kind of forces patience, which obviously some owners didn't have as I ended up with these three solid starters that are also keepers. The only drops I regret are the closers that I ended up picking back up later, so thus far no regrets. I am kind of upset that Baker has turned out so well at catcher, but Wieters should outperform him the rest of the way.
Bourn is the type of player I hate but is needed on my team. I don't have quite enough steals with Roberts(10), Hanley(8), Pujols(7!), Jones (4), and Holliday (3) to be very competitive week to week, so having Bourn as a bench option when steals are close is pretty valuable. He is hitting a LOT better than last year getting on base nearly 80 points better and he had 41 steals last year. He could easily hit 50-60 with a .350 on base and score a lot of runs. He is essentially Jose Reyes-lite, and actually has better numbers across the board than Reyes at this point(granted Reyes has 11 games fewer played due to injury). My situation would be better if Ortiz was hitting so that Bourn wasn't an automatic start as I auto-bench Papi. In general I prefer my speedsters to do better across more categories, like Hanley, Roberts and I guess Pujols! Not many people have 16 home runs and 7 steals at this point...and a .460 on base. Pujols is a god!!!!
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Price's Second Start and more
Due to Fox's ridiculous blackout bullshit policy I was unable to actually watch Price, but I followed his start closely on MLB Gameday pitch tracker as well as the radio broadcast. Eleven strikeouts in 5.2 innings and is in line for the win as he gave up one run to the Rays four. This is the type of start I was expecting out of Price at home against the Twins, but it would be nice for price to go a little deeper into the game. Granted your pitch count is higher than normal if you strike out eleven, but he still faced a lot of 3-2 counts and fouled off pitches on two strike counts. My basic view of him from the first start I saw looks to be accurate, that when he is spotting his fastball he is nigh unhittable. It is clear why he was the number one pitching prospect before getting called up, he is a monster.
Speaking of number one prospects, Wieters had his first major league game yesterday and looked OK at the plate but didn't get any hits. He, and my other two Orioles, face Verlander tonight which should be a good test as he has been lights out the last few starts. It is a good feeling to have both Wieters and Price active finally and not have to worry about when they would get the call.
Owning David Ortiz is getting harder and harder by the day. I've been watching his at-bats when I can and lately he has been hitting a lot of line drives...into defender's gloves, but it appears he is getting a little unlucky at times. He nearly had a grand slam on Friday against the Jays in the first inning but only reached the warning track and went on to go 0-4 yet again. He is 2 for his last 31 which is pretty astounding. Not only is he not hitting homers, he isn't hitting anything. Because my staff is so strong right now I can get by winning the pitching cats and winning a few hitting cats and still cruise to the playoffs, but if I want to win the league I will need Ortiz to heat up or I will be inclined to trade for a solid bat to replace him. I can still wait on him for a while longer though, but until the Sox completely give up on him, he has already been dropped to the 6th spot, I will stay with him as well.
Speaking of number one prospects, Wieters had his first major league game yesterday and looked OK at the plate but didn't get any hits. He, and my other two Orioles, face Verlander tonight which should be a good test as he has been lights out the last few starts. It is a good feeling to have both Wieters and Price active finally and not have to worry about when they would get the call.
Owning David Ortiz is getting harder and harder by the day. I've been watching his at-bats when I can and lately he has been hitting a lot of line drives...into defender's gloves, but it appears he is getting a little unlucky at times. He nearly had a grand slam on Friday against the Jays in the first inning but only reached the warning track and went on to go 0-4 yet again. He is 2 for his last 31 which is pretty astounding. Not only is he not hitting homers, he isn't hitting anything. Because my staff is so strong right now I can get by winning the pitching cats and winning a few hitting cats and still cruise to the playoffs, but if I want to win the league I will need Ortiz to heat up or I will be inclined to trade for a solid bat to replace him. I can still wait on him for a while longer though, but until the Sox completely give up on him, he has already been dropped to the 6th spot, I will stay with him as well.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
WIETERS!!!
Wieters finally gets the call up on Friday and his production could not come sooner to my injury ridden offense. Hanley just pulled a groin and is day to day and Hawpe also has a groin problem. Of course Aramis is still out with a separated shoulder and the soonest he could be back is around the all-star break. My team is really going to need Wieters to produce and produce quickly, which I think he will be able to in what's becoming a very solid Baltimore line-up. It will be interesting to see where he hits in the order but the closer he is to Roberts, Markakis, and Jones the higher his RBI numbers will be.
Picked up Sheffield to replace Hawpe but had to drop him for Andrew Bailey who looked very strong in his second save opportunity. He has been used oddly the last week or so, sometimes in multiple innings, as you can tell he is the only one in the A's pen that the manager trusts. I was watching him pitch and he reminds me a lot of Papelbon when he had a dominant fastball consistently at 96-97. Ziegler has looked really hitable lately and I believe Bailey will get more saves the rest of the way. The only problem is when they are forced to go to him early because no other reliever can be trusted in that bullpen.
Grienke posted another ridiculous complete game 8 strikeout win last night as well. While I would trade him for an elite bat, I won't be too upset if I'm forced to hold on to him as he is definitely the best pitcher in baseball right now. Every hit against him looks lucky as the RBI Magglio produced came off a shattered bat blooper. For me though top hitters are more valuable than pitchers and if I can get one my team will be better off in the long run. Grienke also has even higher value in our keeper league as you will be able to keep him for $15 next year, a good 7-10 dollar savings on what he will be worth.
Picked up Sheffield to replace Hawpe but had to drop him for Andrew Bailey who looked very strong in his second save opportunity. He has been used oddly the last week or so, sometimes in multiple innings, as you can tell he is the only one in the A's pen that the manager trusts. I was watching him pitch and he reminds me a lot of Papelbon when he had a dominant fastball consistently at 96-97. Ziegler has looked really hitable lately and I believe Bailey will get more saves the rest of the way. The only problem is when they are forced to go to him early because no other reliever can be trusted in that bullpen.
Grienke posted another ridiculous complete game 8 strikeout win last night as well. While I would trade him for an elite bat, I won't be too upset if I'm forced to hold on to him as he is definitely the best pitcher in baseball right now. Every hit against him looks lucky as the RBI Magglio produced came off a shattered bat blooper. For me though top hitters are more valuable than pitchers and if I can get one my team will be better off in the long run. Grienke also has even higher value in our keeper league as you will be able to keep him for $15 next year, a good 7-10 dollar savings on what he will be worth.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
David Price's First Start
I watched Price's start against the Indians and it was a mixed bag. He is the only starter I've seen throw 97-98 on most of his fastballs throughout a game and when he spotted it the hitters looked awful. Unfortunately he threw way too many balls and the Indians kept fouling off pitches, I don't think I've seen so many foul balls this year off of one pitcher, which ran his count up to 100 after just 3.1 innings. He was also getting squeezed pretty badly on at least 2 of the five walks he gave up. This looks like perhaps the worst Price can be, which was still 6 Ks in 3.1 innings only giving up 2 runs off of 5 walks and 4 hits. A WHIP killer to be sure but the dude is a strike out machine even on his worst day. I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw multiple no-hitters when he has good command as he made quite a few of the Indian hitters look pathetic on a number of pitches, he was just very inconsistent in this start. I am excited to watch his next start later this week at home against Minnesota where hopefully he gets some of the borderline strikes that were called balls today.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Week 8 Thoughts
We have now completed the first seven weeks of the fantasy baseball season and I am currently sitting in second place at 39-26-5, 6.5 games back of Gus who is in first, but more importantly I have about a 6 game lead on the fifth place team. While I would love to stay in second, or take first, it is far more important to make the playoffs and only the top four teams make it. Looking at the season stats I am currently top three in runs, on base, ERA and WHIP and middle of the pack in every other category. Getting zero power out of Ortiz and having Aramis go down and basically having no catcher all year is contributing to my weakness in HR/RBI. Once Wieters and Aramis start playing my offense should right itself, and if Ortiz can figure something out it will be gravy. I am very happy that I have been able to stay in the top three so far this year with the problems my team has had thus far. Ortiz, Wieters, and Price have all contributed nothing all year so far, though Price makes his first start today and he will be able to throw 100 pitches.
On the pitching end I recently traded shaky closer Mike Gonzalez for Lester who should bolster my wins and Ks where I am lacking so far in pitching. I also was able to pick up Chris Young who has had back to back great starts. Porcello and Ubaldo have also been fantastice since I picked them up. My staff is definitely shaping up, and once Price starts contributing it should be pretty overwhelming. Escobar is also looking good for his early June return, just adding further depth. I've also added Tim Hudson who says he is feeling fantastice post Tommy John, and the Atlanta announcers say he looks better than ever, he is due to return in August.
Overall my team is progressing nicely and is looking to peak in August/September right when I need it to. Importantly I am getting amazing production out of Grienke($11), Weaver($1), Jurrjens($1) and Adam Jones($1) which has kept me afloat thus far and is allowing me to be very patient with Ortiz, Wieters, Price, Hudson, and others that I might have had to drop in this 10 team league if I was off to a bad start. It is pretty exciting to see three of my dollar buys be home runs in the early going. Jones in particular is looking like he could be a three year keeper as he has been nigh unstoppable at the plate.
On the pitching end I recently traded shaky closer Mike Gonzalez for Lester who should bolster my wins and Ks where I am lacking so far in pitching. I also was able to pick up Chris Young who has had back to back great starts. Porcello and Ubaldo have also been fantastice since I picked them up. My staff is definitely shaping up, and once Price starts contributing it should be pretty overwhelming. Escobar is also looking good for his early June return, just adding further depth. I've also added Tim Hudson who says he is feeling fantastice post Tommy John, and the Atlanta announcers say he looks better than ever, he is due to return in August.
Overall my team is progressing nicely and is looking to peak in August/September right when I need it to. Importantly I am getting amazing production out of Grienke($11), Weaver($1), Jurrjens($1) and Adam Jones($1) which has kept me afloat thus far and is allowing me to be very patient with Ortiz, Wieters, Price, Hudson, and others that I might have had to drop in this 10 team league if I was off to a bad start. It is pretty exciting to see three of my dollar buys be home runs in the early going. Jones in particular is looking like he could be a three year keeper as he has been nigh unstoppable at the plate.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Better Lucky than Good.
Especially when half of your team is Day to Day...
My team is facing a very strange week this week with Hanley, A-Ram, Thome, Hawpe, and Ziegler(already missed 1 save chance) all day to day and have yet to play so far. I'm still sitting in a decent position for the week with Grienke/Joba pitching lights out giving me a big edge in ERA/WHIP. Pujols has singlehandedly kept me competitive the last two-three weeks in offense, further validating my buy of him. Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Fukodome have also been keys to my surviving offensive categories the last three weeks. Here's a list of players on my offense who have either done very little to nothing or haven't been playing regularly due to injury:
Holliday: Been an absolute corpse at the plate, but hit his first home run in his last at-bat last night. My offense is decidedly average without Holliday producing.
Ortiz: Still without a homer, but quite a few doubles, Ortiz is right up there with Holliday as a corpse at the plate at the moment. He's hit a few doubles that could have been homers outside of Fenway, but he has looked absolutley horrible at times at the plate. This is all very frightening, but it is still possible that he either gets his timing down or starts joining Bitch Tits himself by starting a strong drug regimen.
Thome: Thome is hitting well enough when he plays but he has already missed 6 games to either a bad heel or lefty starters. He is still valuable, but I have to closely manage him to make sure I bench him against lefties.
Burrell: His onbase is improving, .450 in the last 15 games, but no signs of power yet. This is exactly what I am expecting out of Burrell, that he has a solid on-base when he isn't hitting homers, I just need him to start cranking a few every now and then.
Aramis: Obviously fantastic when he plays, but he hasn't played a full game since April 23.
Hanley: Has been solid when he's played, and has been robbed of a few homers that turned into doubles, but he hasn't played a full game since the 26th due to John Fucking Maine hitting him in the hand with a fastball. Luckily there was no fracture or my team would be in SERIOUS fucking trouble for the year. Hanley has yet to catch fire and play to his potential this year, pre injured hand, so I have that to look forward to at some point. Hanley has also been caught stealing quite a bit this year so far as well.
I still think that once my team starts getting 3-4 of the above guys playing full time at their potential my offense is the best in the league. So far it just hasn't happened yet. I am very very fortunate that my lackluster offensive weeks have been getting matched up with other teams who have had off weeks as well and that mine were slightly better. My team is still leading the league in runs and rbi, as expected, and third in On Base; but I am second to last on homers which I expect to turn around dramatically at some point. On the steals front I am currently 6th, and my steals leader is Pujols with 4...once Hanley gets going again and Roberts stops getting thrown out at a 50% clip I should be in the top 4 or 5 in steals as well.
My team is facing a very strange week this week with Hanley, A-Ram, Thome, Hawpe, and Ziegler(already missed 1 save chance) all day to day and have yet to play so far. I'm still sitting in a decent position for the week with Grienke/Joba pitching lights out giving me a big edge in ERA/WHIP. Pujols has singlehandedly kept me competitive the last two-three weeks in offense, further validating my buy of him. Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Fukodome have also been keys to my surviving offensive categories the last three weeks. Here's a list of players on my offense who have either done very little to nothing or haven't been playing regularly due to injury:
Holliday: Been an absolute corpse at the plate, but hit his first home run in his last at-bat last night. My offense is decidedly average without Holliday producing.
Ortiz: Still without a homer, but quite a few doubles, Ortiz is right up there with Holliday as a corpse at the plate at the moment. He's hit a few doubles that could have been homers outside of Fenway, but he has looked absolutley horrible at times at the plate. This is all very frightening, but it is still possible that he either gets his timing down or starts joining Bitch Tits himself by starting a strong drug regimen.
Thome: Thome is hitting well enough when he plays but he has already missed 6 games to either a bad heel or lefty starters. He is still valuable, but I have to closely manage him to make sure I bench him against lefties.
Burrell: His onbase is improving, .450 in the last 15 games, but no signs of power yet. This is exactly what I am expecting out of Burrell, that he has a solid on-base when he isn't hitting homers, I just need him to start cranking a few every now and then.
Aramis: Obviously fantastic when he plays, but he hasn't played a full game since April 23.
Hanley: Has been solid when he's played, and has been robbed of a few homers that turned into doubles, but he hasn't played a full game since the 26th due to John Fucking Maine hitting him in the hand with a fastball. Luckily there was no fracture or my team would be in SERIOUS fucking trouble for the year. Hanley has yet to catch fire and play to his potential this year, pre injured hand, so I have that to look forward to at some point. Hanley has also been caught stealing quite a bit this year so far as well.
I still think that once my team starts getting 3-4 of the above guys playing full time at their potential my offense is the best in the league. So far it just hasn't happened yet. I am very very fortunate that my lackluster offensive weeks have been getting matched up with other teams who have had off weeks as well and that mine were slightly better. My team is still leading the league in runs and rbi, as expected, and third in On Base; but I am second to last on homers which I expect to turn around dramatically at some point. On the steals front I am currently 6th, and my steals leader is Pujols with 4...once Hanley gets going again and Roberts stops getting thrown out at a 50% clip I should be in the top 4 or 5 in steals as well.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
April Sighs
You know your team has a problem when Kevin Millwood is an anchor of your rotation...and that Zach Duke is on your team. Maybe this is the year Duke lives up to his 2005 breakout...which looking back at wasn't that impressive. He only had 58 strikeouts in 84 innings...but he did have a 1.81 ERA which was the big deal. My bet is he ends up on waivers before long, same with Millwood and his back to back 5+ ERA seasons...this can't be the year he turns it around, can it?
On the bright side Greinke shut out the Rangers in Arlington with 10 Ks and has a 30 inning scoreless streak. I thought he would be great this year, but maybe not quite this good. My team desperately needs him to continue for my staff not to be a complete train wreck on my ERA/WHIP. This is definitely the first year I have been so bad in Ks and Wins, but it has been a little by design as discussed previously. Normally I have AJ Burnett and Carlos Zambrano on my team who give you the Ks and Wins but can blow up at times. Also I have been far more aggressive on picking up riskier K pitchers off waivers. A perfect example is David Purcey who I had on my team for a week but didn't start, and dropped him after a 4.2 inning 10 K game because he had 6 walks, 4 hits, and 4 ER. He has since had a 3.2 inning 5 run game.
The strategy becomes a lot more difficult to manage when you have too many risks in your rotation and bullpen like I do. Greinke is probably the only sure thing on the entire roster. Luckily Joba, Price, Weaver, and Jurrjens have all shown flashes of being great as well. My closer situation is becoming tighter by the day with Street already being demoted out of the role, Villanueva losing his job because of skill and Hoffman coming back soon, and Motte being cut loose after two bad outings. This has let me take some more chances on starters, and I'm still somewhat comfortable with Ziegler and Gonzalez. I pray for Sherrill as he has looked horrible for the most part, but seems to be able to strike out that last batter with the bases loaded each time. If one of those three go down I will be forced to trade for a closer, or be on top of who replaces them.
My offense has not been overwhelming this week, mainly because Hanley isn't doing anything and Ortiz has had one extra base hit all year so far. Luckily Fukodome and Adam Jones are saving me from getting blown out. Burrell, Thome, and most disturbingly Holliday are all having a very slow start. I've already seen two doubles Holliday has hit in Oakland that would have been home runs in most parks. He even began a trot before realizing it would hit the wall. Granted he is hitting .244 at the moment and is a career .318 hitter, so he should bounce back strong at some point. In a head to head league the more stats I can load up in the later months, the better. Perfect example of that was last year when Miguel Cabrera and Tiexera had terrible first months but then produced to their averages in the second half. Cabrera even hit more homers than he ever has, hitting a believe 25 of them in the second half. He never quite raised his batting average back to his career numbers, but it was so low to begin with it was difficult.
Ortiz scares the shit out of me with his horrible .209 slugging % and his 12 strikeouts in 11 games. Even in his slow Aprils in the past he hit homers, his minimum is 5 in the past few years in April. My team will survive without him, but if somehow he puts it together and gives me the 30+ HRs and 380+ OBP I paid $20 for my team becomes a lot more powerful.
On the bright side Greinke shut out the Rangers in Arlington with 10 Ks and has a 30 inning scoreless streak. I thought he would be great this year, but maybe not quite this good. My team desperately needs him to continue for my staff not to be a complete train wreck on my ERA/WHIP. This is definitely the first year I have been so bad in Ks and Wins, but it has been a little by design as discussed previously. Normally I have AJ Burnett and Carlos Zambrano on my team who give you the Ks and Wins but can blow up at times. Also I have been far more aggressive on picking up riskier K pitchers off waivers. A perfect example is David Purcey who I had on my team for a week but didn't start, and dropped him after a 4.2 inning 10 K game because he had 6 walks, 4 hits, and 4 ER. He has since had a 3.2 inning 5 run game.
The strategy becomes a lot more difficult to manage when you have too many risks in your rotation and bullpen like I do. Greinke is probably the only sure thing on the entire roster. Luckily Joba, Price, Weaver, and Jurrjens have all shown flashes of being great as well. My closer situation is becoming tighter by the day with Street already being demoted out of the role, Villanueva losing his job because of skill and Hoffman coming back soon, and Motte being cut loose after two bad outings. This has let me take some more chances on starters, and I'm still somewhat comfortable with Ziegler and Gonzalez. I pray for Sherrill as he has looked horrible for the most part, but seems to be able to strike out that last batter with the bases loaded each time. If one of those three go down I will be forced to trade for a closer, or be on top of who replaces them.
My offense has not been overwhelming this week, mainly because Hanley isn't doing anything and Ortiz has had one extra base hit all year so far. Luckily Fukodome and Adam Jones are saving me from getting blown out. Burrell, Thome, and most disturbingly Holliday are all having a very slow start. I've already seen two doubles Holliday has hit in Oakland that would have been home runs in most parks. He even began a trot before realizing it would hit the wall. Granted he is hitting .244 at the moment and is a career .318 hitter, so he should bounce back strong at some point. In a head to head league the more stats I can load up in the later months, the better. Perfect example of that was last year when Miguel Cabrera and Tiexera had terrible first months but then produced to their averages in the second half. Cabrera even hit more homers than he ever has, hitting a believe 25 of them in the second half. He never quite raised his batting average back to his career numbers, but it was so low to begin with it was difficult.
Ortiz scares the shit out of me with his horrible .209 slugging % and his 12 strikeouts in 11 games. Even in his slow Aprils in the past he hit homers, his minimum is 5 in the past few years in April. My team will survive without him, but if somehow he puts it together and gives me the 30+ HRs and 380+ OBP I paid $20 for my team becomes a lot more powerful.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Roster Thoughts
Five days into the new season and my team is doing about what I'd expect at this point. The offense is putting up some great numbers all around in particular Pujols, Aramis, and the hot pick-up of Bonifacio. I love having Pujols on my team because it means I get to sweat one of the best hitters ever on MLB.TV. Watching him hit HRs is a beautiful thing; he has the sickest swing out there.
After taking a quick lead in the power categories I have begun starting Bonifacio over either Thome or Ortiz depending on the matchup to try and nab some more steals. A player like Bonifacio, who steals a lot but has potentially poor OBP, is something I like to have on my bench to sub in when I am in need of speed during the week. Bonifacio has been a hit machine this week so he is all around great to have, but all indicators suggest he will come back down to earth soon when it comes to getting on base.
Of course the pitching side has been a little sketchy...my ERA and WHIP is pretty atrocious, but its better than my current opponent. This is mainly a result of some horrific pick-ups/starts by Cook, Wellemeyer, and Motte's implosion in his first save appearance. Wellemeyer had great numbers against the Pirates last year going 3-0 with a solid ERA, but he had a poor spring and probably isn't fully ready yet. Fortunately I got fantastic starts out of Grienke and Jurrjens which is keeping my ERA/WHIP in a competitive zone. I am counting on big things from Joba this weekend to put me over the top, but I also have picked up Purcey and Edwin Jackson as guys who had great starts already this week and have potential full season upside.
My closers have been getting the job done, aside from Motte, as I have five saves going into Friday which is tied for the league lead at this point. I watched Ziegler's two saves and I love how he pitches. Very deceptive and made most of the Angels hitters look pretty silly. He gave up one run but it was on a solid pitch. Villaneuva looked like he has been saving games his whole life. Didn't catch Street or Sherrill's appearances but they had clean innings.
I have had a few trade offers come my way but they have been for players I am not really interested in trading at this point, Roberts and Wieters. While I need SP, I can't really sacrifice an entire position like 2B or Catcher for one who isn't really elite. If Bonifacio shows he can have a decent OBP over a longer period of time then Roberts might be a trade candidate for me, but I'd probably rather trade Bonifacio. I feel like Wieters value will go way up once he is called up and starts putting up numbers so I can't really trade him at even value right now.
While I would love to get one more anchor for my staff, I am feeling better about it at this point. If I can just avoid some of the sketchy spot starts I'd be fine in ERA/WHIP right now. If Weaver and Joba prove to be effective I will be much less inclined to make a drastic trade. The best situation for me would be to trade some saves for a decent SP because I feel like I probably have 1-2 too many closers at the moment, especially if Motte can turn it around.
A final note on my roster is that I'm currently running without a Catcher while Wieters is still in the minors. My current matchup doesn't really require extra R/RBI/HR from the catcher spot...if there was a catcher out there who could steal I'd pick him up but they don't really exist. Also most catchers available on waivers have bad OBP's that would needlessly hurt me. I may still pick one up in future weeks if it looks to be a closer matchup in the power categories. For the moment the roster slot is better served for auditioning SP's and giving me some innings to combat the runs I gave up earlier in the week.
After taking a quick lead in the power categories I have begun starting Bonifacio over either Thome or Ortiz depending on the matchup to try and nab some more steals. A player like Bonifacio, who steals a lot but has potentially poor OBP, is something I like to have on my bench to sub in when I am in need of speed during the week. Bonifacio has been a hit machine this week so he is all around great to have, but all indicators suggest he will come back down to earth soon when it comes to getting on base.
Of course the pitching side has been a little sketchy...my ERA and WHIP is pretty atrocious, but its better than my current opponent. This is mainly a result of some horrific pick-ups/starts by Cook, Wellemeyer, and Motte's implosion in his first save appearance. Wellemeyer had great numbers against the Pirates last year going 3-0 with a solid ERA, but he had a poor spring and probably isn't fully ready yet. Fortunately I got fantastic starts out of Grienke and Jurrjens which is keeping my ERA/WHIP in a competitive zone. I am counting on big things from Joba this weekend to put me over the top, but I also have picked up Purcey and Edwin Jackson as guys who had great starts already this week and have potential full season upside.
My closers have been getting the job done, aside from Motte, as I have five saves going into Friday which is tied for the league lead at this point. I watched Ziegler's two saves and I love how he pitches. Very deceptive and made most of the Angels hitters look pretty silly. He gave up one run but it was on a solid pitch. Villaneuva looked like he has been saving games his whole life. Didn't catch Street or Sherrill's appearances but they had clean innings.
I have had a few trade offers come my way but they have been for players I am not really interested in trading at this point, Roberts and Wieters. While I need SP, I can't really sacrifice an entire position like 2B or Catcher for one who isn't really elite. If Bonifacio shows he can have a decent OBP over a longer period of time then Roberts might be a trade candidate for me, but I'd probably rather trade Bonifacio. I feel like Wieters value will go way up once he is called up and starts putting up numbers so I can't really trade him at even value right now.
While I would love to get one more anchor for my staff, I am feeling better about it at this point. If I can just avoid some of the sketchy spot starts I'd be fine in ERA/WHIP right now. If Weaver and Joba prove to be effective I will be much less inclined to make a drastic trade. The best situation for me would be to trade some saves for a decent SP because I feel like I probably have 1-2 too many closers at the moment, especially if Motte can turn it around.
A final note on my roster is that I'm currently running without a Catcher while Wieters is still in the minors. My current matchup doesn't really require extra R/RBI/HR from the catcher spot...if there was a catcher out there who could steal I'd pick him up but they don't really exist. Also most catchers available on waivers have bad OBP's that would needlessly hurt me. I may still pick one up in future weeks if it looks to be a closer matchup in the power categories. For the moment the roster slot is better served for auditioning SP's and giving me some innings to combat the runs I gave up earlier in the week.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Auction: Pitchers
Looking back at the Auction I wish I had budgeted for $70-$80 in pitching instead of just $60. While I think spending over $20 on a pitcher is too much, spending 15-18 on the right starter is probably advised. For example James Shields at $16, Oswalt at $15, Hamels at $17...the list goes fairly deep of solid starters that went cheap enough that I could have jumped on them...
Instead I jumped early on Joba at $13...which looking at some of those other buys that went on later leaves me scratching my head as to why I paid so much for someone who hasn't thrown over 100 innings in a season in the majors. While Joba sports stuff that, if he pitches 150-180 innings, could translate to Cy Young material...his history is fraught with injury and disappointment. As someone who hates taking high priced risks with pitching, Joba at $13 is probably one of the bigger risks in the entire auction. He could turn out to be a solid keeper at $17 next year, which unnecessarily influenced my bidding, which is the only saving grace of this buy that could prove to be quite ugly.
My initial plan with starting pitching was to nab one $11-12 player, three ~$6, and four ~$3 players at the end. Instead I spent $13 on Joba, $12 on David Price, $11 on Grienke (who I love both the buy and the player), and Jurrjens, Weaver, and Escobar at $1. Doing the math for you, I ended up two SP short than what I planned for and didn't nab any of the $6 pitchers. I used up the roster slots on two extra "closers", two hitters, and a catcher to spell Wieters (that I have since dropped for a pitcher). There weren't any other $1 pitchers outside of the ones I got that I was too interested in at the end of the Auction. As for the $6 pitchers I was targeting but didn't have the funds to get, because I spent $12 on Price and $13 on Joba, the list includes Harang, Cain, Lilly, Garza, Scherzer, and Carmona. Had I been smart and passed on Price or Joba I could have had at least one of those guys, possibly two as Carmona went for a bit cheaper. This lack of depth will probably require that I make a move at some point for one or two starters. My hope is that I can find at least one guy on waivers that will make me happy all year.
Something that was very different in this auction versus my practice auctions was that I got pitchers like Ubaldo and Carpenter at the end of almost all of the previous auctions. Of course in this one, Gus was all over them and saved extra money to ensure he got them. The way I spent my money precluded me from getting these upside guys as long as someone else had more money than me and had the inclination to go after them. For this reason I was VERY worried I wouldn't end up with Escobar who I feel could be a huge anchor for me in the end.
Ultimately, I took chances on SP like I do every year, but this year I reached quite a bit on two guys, mainly because it is a keeper league, which I feel was a little too much. If I could do it again I'd pass on Joba, but keep the Price buy as he could be fantastic next year and should be decent to very good this year. I do love Grienke and Escobar, and I think Jurrjens and Weaver will be quite serviceable over the course of the season. While initially I was very worried about my staff, I feel that if Escobar comes back strong I am one to two moves away from having a very competitive staff.
Closers $20 ( I spent $15)
My general strategy with closers is to amass 4-5 mediocre closers on bad teams for cheap and ride them, and their handcuffs, to great success at saves. To get an elite closer cost between $15 and $20 in this auction, which is just not worth it when you can lock down the entire saves stat for $15-$20 on cheap players at the end. Sometimes one or two of the guys you get at the end turns into someone like Soria and ends up giving you that $15 value anyway.
I didn't do quite enough research into the cheap closers this year to know which were the most safe, I just made a spread sheet of all of them and decided I was paying about $4 for any of them. I ended up with Mike Gonzalez, Sherrill, Motte, Street, Lyons, and Ziegler. Looking closer at the closer situation in Detroit led me to dropping Lyons almost immediately, leaving me with five average closers...kind of. Motte has already given up four ER and blown a save and is someone who doesn't necessarily have a titan's grip on the job. He will need to bounce back and produce or La Russa will be giving the job to someone else soon enough. This isn't that big of a problem as I can pick whoever that person is up, if I am fast enough. I am also fine with who I have left if Motte goes away with Gonz, Sherr, Street, and Ziegs.
I believe very strongly in Ziegler and Gonzalez and feel OK about Sherrill and Street. Best case scenario is all five pan out and I trade one or two of them for a starter and the worse case is I'm left with two-three average closers and might need to trade for one. Last year I pulled off a deal for Lidge which helped tremendously with my run in the playoffs.
Overall I think my team is pretty much a lock for top four and a playoff birth unless a TON of things go wrong. My activity on the waiver wire should keep even the most disastrous of situations from nuking my playoff chances. If things go well, I will be in a very strong position come playoff time to make a run at it. Its a long season though, and I am trying to be a little more patient this year and avoid making the ugly trade for short term needs. For example, Cliff Lee for M. Young early in the year last year...At the same time there is certainly value to be had in making trades early in the year, for example Gus's Beltran for Fielder trade this year or Ichiro for Berkman last year. My success rate with early season trades hasn't been quite as good, so I am a little more leary in trading at the moment.
More thoughts on my recent moves and players currently on my roster in the near future...
Instead I jumped early on Joba at $13...which looking at some of those other buys that went on later leaves me scratching my head as to why I paid so much for someone who hasn't thrown over 100 innings in a season in the majors. While Joba sports stuff that, if he pitches 150-180 innings, could translate to Cy Young material...his history is fraught with injury and disappointment. As someone who hates taking high priced risks with pitching, Joba at $13 is probably one of the bigger risks in the entire auction. He could turn out to be a solid keeper at $17 next year, which unnecessarily influenced my bidding, which is the only saving grace of this buy that could prove to be quite ugly.
My initial plan with starting pitching was to nab one $11-12 player, three ~$6, and four ~$3 players at the end. Instead I spent $13 on Joba, $12 on David Price, $11 on Grienke (who I love both the buy and the player), and Jurrjens, Weaver, and Escobar at $1. Doing the math for you, I ended up two SP short than what I planned for and didn't nab any of the $6 pitchers. I used up the roster slots on two extra "closers", two hitters, and a catcher to spell Wieters (that I have since dropped for a pitcher). There weren't any other $1 pitchers outside of the ones I got that I was too interested in at the end of the Auction. As for the $6 pitchers I was targeting but didn't have the funds to get, because I spent $12 on Price and $13 on Joba, the list includes Harang, Cain, Lilly, Garza, Scherzer, and Carmona. Had I been smart and passed on Price or Joba I could have had at least one of those guys, possibly two as Carmona went for a bit cheaper. This lack of depth will probably require that I make a move at some point for one or two starters. My hope is that I can find at least one guy on waivers that will make me happy all year.
Something that was very different in this auction versus my practice auctions was that I got pitchers like Ubaldo and Carpenter at the end of almost all of the previous auctions. Of course in this one, Gus was all over them and saved extra money to ensure he got them. The way I spent my money precluded me from getting these upside guys as long as someone else had more money than me and had the inclination to go after them. For this reason I was VERY worried I wouldn't end up with Escobar who I feel could be a huge anchor for me in the end.
Ultimately, I took chances on SP like I do every year, but this year I reached quite a bit on two guys, mainly because it is a keeper league, which I feel was a little too much. If I could do it again I'd pass on Joba, but keep the Price buy as he could be fantastic next year and should be decent to very good this year. I do love Grienke and Escobar, and I think Jurrjens and Weaver will be quite serviceable over the course of the season. While initially I was very worried about my staff, I feel that if Escobar comes back strong I am one to two moves away from having a very competitive staff.
Closers $20 ( I spent $15)
My general strategy with closers is to amass 4-5 mediocre closers on bad teams for cheap and ride them, and their handcuffs, to great success at saves. To get an elite closer cost between $15 and $20 in this auction, which is just not worth it when you can lock down the entire saves stat for $15-$20 on cheap players at the end. Sometimes one or two of the guys you get at the end turns into someone like Soria and ends up giving you that $15 value anyway.
I didn't do quite enough research into the cheap closers this year to know which were the most safe, I just made a spread sheet of all of them and decided I was paying about $4 for any of them. I ended up with Mike Gonzalez, Sherrill, Motte, Street, Lyons, and Ziegler. Looking closer at the closer situation in Detroit led me to dropping Lyons almost immediately, leaving me with five average closers...kind of. Motte has already given up four ER and blown a save and is someone who doesn't necessarily have a titan's grip on the job. He will need to bounce back and produce or La Russa will be giving the job to someone else soon enough. This isn't that big of a problem as I can pick whoever that person is up, if I am fast enough. I am also fine with who I have left if Motte goes away with Gonz, Sherr, Street, and Ziegs.
I believe very strongly in Ziegler and Gonzalez and feel OK about Sherrill and Street. Best case scenario is all five pan out and I trade one or two of them for a starter and the worse case is I'm left with two-three average closers and might need to trade for one. Last year I pulled off a deal for Lidge which helped tremendously with my run in the playoffs.
Overall I think my team is pretty much a lock for top four and a playoff birth unless a TON of things go wrong. My activity on the waiver wire should keep even the most disastrous of situations from nuking my playoff chances. If things go well, I will be in a very strong position come playoff time to make a run at it. Its a long season though, and I am trying to be a little more patient this year and avoid making the ugly trade for short term needs. For example, Cliff Lee for M. Young early in the year last year...At the same time there is certainly value to be had in making trades early in the year, for example Gus's Beltran for Fielder trade this year or Ichiro for Berkman last year. My success rate with early season trades hasn't been quite as good, so I am a little more leary in trading at the moment.
More thoughts on my recent moves and players currently on my roster in the near future...
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Auction Continued
As mentioned before, my basic strategy in creating a fantasy team is to focus on dominating Rs, HRs, RBI, and OBP while putting up a fight against most teams in steals. My strategy for pitching is to be competitive to dominant in saves and, new to me, try to find the bargain low ratio SPs that can get wins and hopefully Ks to give me a fighting chance in ERA/Whip/K's/Wins. In past years I would go for high K/Win guys regardless of ERA/WHIP but I find that to be a pretty terrible strategy because you can't afford to punt ERA and WHIP on a week to week basis. You also need as much clean innings as you can get to normalize the times your mediocre closers blow saves. Given this, here is how I budgeted for my team pre-auction:
~$150 for 3-5 elite players
~$50 to fill in the rest of the offense
~$20 on closers
~$40 on SP
Here's who I ended up with at each tier:
~$150 for 3-5 Elite players (I spent $161)
Hanley Ramirez $46
I was willing to go to about $50 for Hanley as I believe him to be so far and away the best short stop that the alternative would be too messy/annoying to deal with. The only other SS I'd consider would be Rollins but in an OBP league he is 50-60 points worse than Hanley who is improving each year, hit .400 OBP last year to Rollins .349. Not to mention Hanley has a decent shot to put up 35-40 HRs and 35-40 steals, remember he stole 50 bases in 06/07. I am really surprised I didn't have to pay $50 for him actually as I thought Gus would go to $48 easily.
Albert Pujols $46
This is where I may have made a mistake, but having your mistake be getting Albert Pujols can't be that bad. It probably would have been a lot better for my team to give up Pujols and get someone like Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard along with another $15 player. Granted Pujols is definitely worth $46-$50, using $92 on two players is a little crazy. I was definitely expecting to be repopped to $47-49, where I probably would have bowed out. I am not too sad to have the league leader in OBP(barring a full season from Chipper) and 40+HR potential etc.
Matt Holliday $29
I have a pretty hefty man-crush on Holliday as most people in the league know, and I have no worries about his transition to Oakland. Don't forget he missed almost a month of the season last year and STILL put up 25 HRs, 28SBs along with an over .400 OBP. I personally think he's a lock for 30 HR's+ if he stays healthy and a fantastic OBP. Looking at the Oakland lineup also could suggest that people might pitch around him more, in which case he could maybe steal that many more bases! I will be happy with 15+ out of him though.
David Ortiz $20
In retrospect I don't love this buy...I think Ortiz has a serious potential to get back to where he was in '07 at least but there are plenty of guys who will DEFINITELY put up certain numbers with very little risk. Perfect example is Thome at $7, I wouldn't be too surprised if Thome has similar numbers to Ortiz in the end this year which shows just how great Thome is in this league and also that I overpaid on Ortiz. Ortiz is another example of a guy who basically cannot afford to underperform on my team or else I massively overpaid. I would put Holliday in this mix too, but I believe in Holliday a lot more.
Brian Roberts $20
After Utley and Kinsler I am not too impressed with the 2nd basemen going forward in the auction. In retrospect I wish I had at least bid on Kinsler at 25 but I had just got done spending $92 on two players and I hadn't been overtly targeting him in my pre-auction preparation. Ultimately I was hoping to get Roberts and Aramis to meet my ~$150 quota. I had to pay a little more than I wanted for Roberts, but I really didn't want to pass on him and pray Uggla didn't go over $20 due to his OBP numbers. Also taking Roberts forces my hand into getting another steals guy to go with Hanley as I generally hate drafting steals. Roberts puts up just enough numbers in the other categories to where I am happy to have him in general. This buy put me to $160 on offense, meaning I had $40 left to spend on Catcher, 3B, Two OFs and a Util.
~$50 to fill in the rest of the offense (Spent $42)
Aramis Ramirez $19
A-Ram is the cutoff for me at 3B as the only other 3B I was interested in were Chipper, Wright, and maybe A-Rod at the right price. I love the price I got on A-Ram and wouldn't be too surprised if I kept him at $24 next year. At this point I had spent $180 on offense and was planning on perhaps one more ~$15 player followed by $1 fill ins at the end.
Jim Thome $7
I've talked about how much I like Thome at length. I think he will produce like a $10-$20 player this year in our league if his 38 year old body can stay healthy that is. The problem is I didn't realize how few people were factoring in OBP into their auction values as we see later on. I think Thome is only slightly better than Burrell/Hawpe who I got for quite a bit cheaper later on. Ultimately I'm happy to have him as I think by stock piling 30+HR guys I can compensate for if one or two of them go down...or if they all stay healthy I can trade for pitching later on.
Matt Wieters $12
The more I research and think about this buy, the more I like it. There wasn't another offensive player left in the auction at $10+ that I felt had the kind of upside Wieters does for this year and the next. I've seen him go for $15+ in non-keeper expert leagues so I wasn't afraid to spend that much on him, but I am excited at the prospect of keeping him at $17 next year. Pretty much every expert I've read flat out believes in him to be a lock for Rookie of the Year and to put up at least Longoria type numbers, with a better OBP. I still find myself a little worried about his lack of experience at anything higher than AA, but he hit well in spring and he put together what is known as the best minor league year of all time last year. I will be surprised if he is a bust at $12.
Pat Burrell $1/ Brad Hawpe $3
Both of these guys are fantastic buys at these prices in our OBP league...they are locks for 25+ HRs, 85-90+ RBI, 80+Rs and solid OBPs. I was very happy I waited to fill up the outfield when I did. Both should have been $1 as Gus was just trying to keep me from getting Hawpe at $1. He admitted later that it would have been really awkward for him to have filled up a roster spot had I let him have Hawpe at $2. I should have considered it and taken Cust at $1 later on, but I do believe Hawpe has a bit of an edge over Cust this year. I was concerned with not having quite enough money at the end to get the closers I wanted, but it ended up being fine.
I will go over my pitchers and the rest of the $1 players I got at another time...
~$150 for 3-5 elite players
~$50 to fill in the rest of the offense
~$20 on closers
~$40 on SP
Here's who I ended up with at each tier:
~$150 for 3-5 Elite players (I spent $161)
Hanley Ramirez $46
I was willing to go to about $50 for Hanley as I believe him to be so far and away the best short stop that the alternative would be too messy/annoying to deal with. The only other SS I'd consider would be Rollins but in an OBP league he is 50-60 points worse than Hanley who is improving each year, hit .400 OBP last year to Rollins .349. Not to mention Hanley has a decent shot to put up 35-40 HRs and 35-40 steals, remember he stole 50 bases in 06/07. I am really surprised I didn't have to pay $50 for him actually as I thought Gus would go to $48 easily.
Albert Pujols $46
This is where I may have made a mistake, but having your mistake be getting Albert Pujols can't be that bad. It probably would have been a lot better for my team to give up Pujols and get someone like Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard along with another $15 player. Granted Pujols is definitely worth $46-$50, using $92 on two players is a little crazy. I was definitely expecting to be repopped to $47-49, where I probably would have bowed out. I am not too sad to have the league leader in OBP(barring a full season from Chipper) and 40+HR potential etc.
Matt Holliday $29
I have a pretty hefty man-crush on Holliday as most people in the league know, and I have no worries about his transition to Oakland. Don't forget he missed almost a month of the season last year and STILL put up 25 HRs, 28SBs along with an over .400 OBP. I personally think he's a lock for 30 HR's+ if he stays healthy and a fantastic OBP. Looking at the Oakland lineup also could suggest that people might pitch around him more, in which case he could maybe steal that many more bases! I will be happy with 15+ out of him though.
David Ortiz $20
In retrospect I don't love this buy...I think Ortiz has a serious potential to get back to where he was in '07 at least but there are plenty of guys who will DEFINITELY put up certain numbers with very little risk. Perfect example is Thome at $7, I wouldn't be too surprised if Thome has similar numbers to Ortiz in the end this year which shows just how great Thome is in this league and also that I overpaid on Ortiz. Ortiz is another example of a guy who basically cannot afford to underperform on my team or else I massively overpaid. I would put Holliday in this mix too, but I believe in Holliday a lot more.
Brian Roberts $20
After Utley and Kinsler I am not too impressed with the 2nd basemen going forward in the auction. In retrospect I wish I had at least bid on Kinsler at 25 but I had just got done spending $92 on two players and I hadn't been overtly targeting him in my pre-auction preparation. Ultimately I was hoping to get Roberts and Aramis to meet my ~$150 quota. I had to pay a little more than I wanted for Roberts, but I really didn't want to pass on him and pray Uggla didn't go over $20 due to his OBP numbers. Also taking Roberts forces my hand into getting another steals guy to go with Hanley as I generally hate drafting steals. Roberts puts up just enough numbers in the other categories to where I am happy to have him in general. This buy put me to $160 on offense, meaning I had $40 left to spend on Catcher, 3B, Two OFs and a Util.
~$50 to fill in the rest of the offense (Spent $42)
Aramis Ramirez $19
A-Ram is the cutoff for me at 3B as the only other 3B I was interested in were Chipper, Wright, and maybe A-Rod at the right price. I love the price I got on A-Ram and wouldn't be too surprised if I kept him at $24 next year. At this point I had spent $180 on offense and was planning on perhaps one more ~$15 player followed by $1 fill ins at the end.
Jim Thome $7
I've talked about how much I like Thome at length. I think he will produce like a $10-$20 player this year in our league if his 38 year old body can stay healthy that is. The problem is I didn't realize how few people were factoring in OBP into their auction values as we see later on. I think Thome is only slightly better than Burrell/Hawpe who I got for quite a bit cheaper later on. Ultimately I'm happy to have him as I think by stock piling 30+HR guys I can compensate for if one or two of them go down...or if they all stay healthy I can trade for pitching later on.
Matt Wieters $12
The more I research and think about this buy, the more I like it. There wasn't another offensive player left in the auction at $10+ that I felt had the kind of upside Wieters does for this year and the next. I've seen him go for $15+ in non-keeper expert leagues so I wasn't afraid to spend that much on him, but I am excited at the prospect of keeping him at $17 next year. Pretty much every expert I've read flat out believes in him to be a lock for Rookie of the Year and to put up at least Longoria type numbers, with a better OBP. I still find myself a little worried about his lack of experience at anything higher than AA, but he hit well in spring and he put together what is known as the best minor league year of all time last year. I will be surprised if he is a bust at $12.
Pat Burrell $1/ Brad Hawpe $3
Both of these guys are fantastic buys at these prices in our OBP league...they are locks for 25+ HRs, 85-90+ RBI, 80+Rs and solid OBPs. I was very happy I waited to fill up the outfield when I did. Both should have been $1 as Gus was just trying to keep me from getting Hawpe at $1. He admitted later that it would have been really awkward for him to have filled up a roster spot had I let him have Hawpe at $2. I should have considered it and taken Cust at $1 later on, but I do believe Hawpe has a bit of an edge over Cust this year. I was concerned with not having quite enough money at the end to get the closers I wanted, but it ended up being fine.
I will go over my pitchers and the rest of the $1 players I got at another time...
Auctions and Keepers
Welcome to my all new '09 Season blog! In this blog you will find my thoughts on:
A new era has emerged in the Wallace Invitational this year as we have done an Auction draft and are instituting keepers for the first time. I did four live auctions in preparation for the real deal and it probably wasn't enough. I was mainly winging the practice auctions to get a feel for what players go for and what I can get away with while still maintaining a decent team. Anyone who knows what I like to do in FBB knows I am all about stacking up on R, HR, RBI, and AVG(OBP this year) and worry about the pitching later.
Auctions give me the unique ability to go HOG WILD on nearly everyone I want on offense and really push the limits of just how decent a pitching staff I can put together with little resources. In one practice auction I got four of the top six offensive players(Pujols, Utley, Wright, Braun) amongst other fine offensive players(Holliday, Morneau, Youkilis, Carlos Lee) and ended up with a staff far better than what I ended up with in the Wallace Invitational (Harang, Myers, Bedard, Carpenter and more). Granted this was a much more casual auction compared to our league, with at least four people not in attendance for the auction, so it can be taken with a grain of salt.
What made the Wallace Invitational auction a lot tougher, and quite a bit different, was the following:
Keeper strategy is something I haven't put a ton of thought into as I have a general feeling that I will have too many people I want to keep anyway so why bother thinking about it now. Our settings are that we get to keep four players at whatever they were drafted at +$5 for a max of three years. My other general feeling on keepers is that I want to win now and I don't want it to affect me to the point of making too many moves I wouldn't normally make. I think I failed a bit on this point, being tempted into buying Joba(13), David Price(12), and Wieters(12) at prices I wouldn't dream of in a normal league, and arguably bad buys even for the following year with the keeper cost. Essentially they will have to put up their highest possible production, or show signs that they will next year, in order for me to keep them at the prices I got them at. I have the most faith in Wieters, and if he puts up the type of numbers he's capable of, .390's OBP 30ish HR 90+ RBI/R's, I think he will be a great value at $17 next year. Or he could turn into Alex Gordon and I'll be kicking myself waiting forever for him to show his talent at the major league level.
I always worry about pitchers and hate how they can never stay healthy, one reason I only spent $57 on pitching, but if I'm gonna sink some money into one I prefer to shoot for the stars and get the highest upside guys. I figure every pitcher brings serious risk, compared to a hitter's risk to get hurt, so why not gamble. Sinking $20+ into any pitcher I find to be a very dubious proposition when you just never know who is going to go down, and someone always does. Think Chris Carpenter in '07 back when he was shut down in April for the season or Peavy in '06 where he put up a 4+ ERA following consecutive <3 ERA seasons. You can find a ton of examples. I cannot be having such risks at $20+ on my team, and thus I am forced to have a scrubby pitching staff full of as many upside gambles that I can muster. Think Cliff Lee last year, if you paid attention to spring training '08 you probably had an inkling to take a gamble on Lee at the end of the draft. I did so and he won the Cy Young...granted I traded him for M. Young but that's another story. That is what I'm looking for when I draft a pitcher, maybe not Cy Young material, but within the realm of possibility.
This is too long of a post already, so I'll end it here...expect another one shortly on the Auction itself where I will get into my pre-auction strategy, its execution, and some of the interesting things that happened.
- various fantasy topics.
- my team this year.
- other teams in my league.
- transactions that happen in the league.
- general fantasy strategy.
A new era has emerged in the Wallace Invitational this year as we have done an Auction draft and are instituting keepers for the first time. I did four live auctions in preparation for the real deal and it probably wasn't enough. I was mainly winging the practice auctions to get a feel for what players go for and what I can get away with while still maintaining a decent team. Anyone who knows what I like to do in FBB knows I am all about stacking up on R, HR, RBI, and AVG(OBP this year) and worry about the pitching later.
Auctions give me the unique ability to go HOG WILD on nearly everyone I want on offense and really push the limits of just how decent a pitching staff I can put together with little resources. In one practice auction I got four of the top six offensive players(Pujols, Utley, Wright, Braun) amongst other fine offensive players(Holliday, Morneau, Youkilis, Carlos Lee) and ended up with a staff far better than what I ended up with in the Wallace Invitational (Harang, Myers, Bedard, Carpenter and more). Granted this was a much more casual auction compared to our league, with at least four people not in attendance for the auction, so it can be taken with a grain of salt.
What made the Wallace Invitational auction a lot tougher, and quite a bit different, was the following:
- OBP instead of AVG changed quite a few player's values.
- Keepers.
- More people in the auction knowledgeable enough to drive the prices up on certain players, Gus being the most on top of it.
Keeper strategy is something I haven't put a ton of thought into as I have a general feeling that I will have too many people I want to keep anyway so why bother thinking about it now. Our settings are that we get to keep four players at whatever they were drafted at +$5 for a max of three years. My other general feeling on keepers is that I want to win now and I don't want it to affect me to the point of making too many moves I wouldn't normally make. I think I failed a bit on this point, being tempted into buying Joba(13), David Price(12), and Wieters(12) at prices I wouldn't dream of in a normal league, and arguably bad buys even for the following year with the keeper cost. Essentially they will have to put up their highest possible production, or show signs that they will next year, in order for me to keep them at the prices I got them at. I have the most faith in Wieters, and if he puts up the type of numbers he's capable of, .390's OBP 30ish HR 90+ RBI/R's, I think he will be a great value at $17 next year. Or he could turn into Alex Gordon and I'll be kicking myself waiting forever for him to show his talent at the major league level.
I always worry about pitchers and hate how they can never stay healthy, one reason I only spent $57 on pitching, but if I'm gonna sink some money into one I prefer to shoot for the stars and get the highest upside guys. I figure every pitcher brings serious risk, compared to a hitter's risk to get hurt, so why not gamble. Sinking $20+ into any pitcher I find to be a very dubious proposition when you just never know who is going to go down, and someone always does. Think Chris Carpenter in '07 back when he was shut down in April for the season or Peavy in '06 where he put up a 4+ ERA following consecutive <3 ERA seasons. You can find a ton of examples. I cannot be having such risks at $20+ on my team, and thus I am forced to have a scrubby pitching staff full of as many upside gambles that I can muster. Think Cliff Lee last year, if you paid attention to spring training '08 you probably had an inkling to take a gamble on Lee at the end of the draft. I did so and he won the Cy Young...granted I traded him for M. Young but that's another story. That is what I'm looking for when I draft a pitcher, maybe not Cy Young material, but within the realm of possibility.
This is too long of a post already, so I'll end it here...expect another one shortly on the Auction itself where I will get into my pre-auction strategy, its execution, and some of the interesting things that happened.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)