Auction: Pitchers

Looking back at the Auction I wish I had budgeted for $70-$80 in pitching instead of just $60. While I think spending over $20 on a pitcher is too much, spending 15-18 on the right starter is probably advised. For example James Shields at $16, Oswalt at $15, Hamels at $17...the list goes fairly deep of solid starters that went cheap enough that I could have jumped on them...

Instead I jumped early on Joba at $13...which looking at some of those other buys that went on later leaves me scratching my head as to why I paid so much for someone who hasn't thrown over 100 innings in a season in the majors. While Joba sports stuff that, if he pitches 150-180 innings, could translate to Cy Young material...his history is fraught with injury and disappointment. As someone who hates taking high priced risks with pitching, Joba at $13 is probably one of the bigger risks in the entire auction. He could turn out to be a solid keeper at $17 next year, which unnecessarily influenced my bidding, which is the only saving grace of this buy that could prove to be quite ugly.

My initial plan with starting pitching was to nab one $11-12 player, three ~$6, and four ~$3 players at the end. Instead I spent $13 on Joba, $12 on David Price, $11 on Grienke (who I love both the buy and the player), and Jurrjens, Weaver, and Escobar at $1. Doing the math for you, I ended up two SP short than what I planned for and didn't nab any of the $6 pitchers. I used up the roster slots on two extra "closers", two hitters, and a catcher to spell Wieters (that I have since dropped for a pitcher). There weren't any other $1 pitchers outside of the ones I got that I was too interested in at the end of the Auction. As for the $6 pitchers I was targeting but didn't have the funds to get, because I spent $12 on Price and $13 on Joba, the list includes Harang, Cain, Lilly, Garza, Scherzer, and Carmona. Had I been smart and passed on Price or Joba I could have had at least one of those guys, possibly two as Carmona went for a bit cheaper. This lack of depth will probably require that I make a move at some point for one or two starters. My hope is that I can find at least one guy on waivers that will make me happy all year.

Something that was very different in this auction versus my practice auctions was that I got pitchers like Ubaldo and Carpenter at the end of almost all of the previous auctions. Of course in this one, Gus was all over them and saved extra money to ensure he got them. The way I spent my money precluded me from getting these upside guys as long as someone else had more money than me and had the inclination to go after them. For this reason I was VERY worried I wouldn't end up with Escobar who I feel could be a huge anchor for me in the end.

Ultimately, I took chances on SP like I do every year, but this year I reached quite a bit on two guys, mainly because it is a keeper league, which I feel was a little too much. If I could do it again I'd pass on Joba, but keep the Price buy as he could be fantastic next year and should be decent to very good this year. I do love Grienke and Escobar, and I think Jurrjens and Weaver will be quite serviceable over the course of the season. While initially I was very worried about my staff, I feel that if Escobar comes back strong I am one to two moves away from having a very competitive staff.

Closers $20 ( I spent $15)


My general strategy with closers is to amass 4-5 mediocre closers on bad teams for cheap and ride them, and their handcuffs, to great success at saves. To get an elite closer cost between $15 and $20 in this auction, which is just not worth it when you can lock down the entire saves stat for $15-$20 on cheap players at the end. Sometimes one or two of the guys you get at the end turns into someone like Soria and ends up giving you that $15 value anyway.

I didn't do quite enough research into the cheap closers this year to know which were the most safe, I just made a spread sheet of all of them and decided I was paying about $4 for any of them. I ended up with Mike Gonzalez, Sherrill, Motte, Street, Lyons, and Ziegler. Looking closer at the closer situation in Detroit led me to dropping Lyons almost immediately, leaving me with five average closers...kind of. Motte has already given up four ER and blown a save and is someone who doesn't necessarily have a titan's grip on the job. He will need to bounce back and produce or La Russa will be giving the job to someone else soon enough. This isn't that big of a problem as I can pick whoever that person is up, if I am fast enough. I am also fine with who I have left if Motte goes away with Gonz, Sherr, Street, and Ziegs.

I believe very strongly in Ziegler and Gonzalez and feel OK about Sherrill and Street. Best case scenario is all five pan out and I trade one or two of them for a starter and the worse case is I'm left with two-three average closers and might need to trade for one. Last year I pulled off a deal for Lidge which helped tremendously with my run in the playoffs.

Overall I think my team is pretty much a lock for top four and a playoff birth unless a TON of things go wrong. My activity on the waiver wire should keep even the most disastrous of situations from nuking my playoff chances. If things go well, I will be in a very strong position come playoff time to make a run at it. Its a long season though, and I am trying to be a little more patient this year and avoid making the ugly trade for short term needs. For example, Cliff Lee for M. Young early in the year last year...At the same time there is certainly value to be had in making trades early in the year, for example Gus's Beltran for Fielder trade this year or Ichiro for Berkman last year. My success rate with early season trades hasn't been quite as good, so I am a little more leary in trading at the moment.

More thoughts on my recent moves and players currently on my roster in the near future...